Our staff’s 6 top picks, including Blue Jays vs. Yankees, Rockies vs. Rangers

It’s a full Tuesday in Major League Baseball, with all 30 teams ready to take the field, a few afternoon games and a host of betting opportunities.

Our analysts are on four of those 15 games with six bets in total, starting with duel choices in the afternoon affair between the Guardians and the Reds. We have totals, money lines for the whole game, team totals and more to recommend.

Here are our top six bets from Tuesday’s MLB board.

MLB Odds & Picks

Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds

Pick
Red -104
Order
FanDuel
Kander
Shane Bieber Vs. Tyler Mahle
First pitch
16:10 ET

Tanner McGrath: I’m willing to sell high on the Guardians after they exploded in 27 races in a two-game series against Kansas City.

Cleveland probably shouldn’t be favored in Cincinnati, anyway. Especially against Tyler Mahle, a guy who I go high up this season and who had a solid debut on opening day. He hit seven Braves over five innings with three strokes that day, and that’s a follow-up to a 2021 season where he hit a 3.74 xFIP over 180 IP.

Mahle’s fastball fascinates me. He added a couple of speeds over the last two years and his strikeout rate on the track has increased by 8% as a result.

Meanwhile, the Guardians’ number 18 in MLB in weighted fastball races was created last season (-2.9), and I expect Mahle to blow four-seamers off Cleveland over another five or six innings.

Shane Bieber is the reason Cleveland is favored, but he did not look infallible in his first start. The former Cy Young winner managed just 4 2/3 innings against the Royals with an xFIP over 4.15. And backing him up is a Cleveland pen who is expected to be in the back half of the league this season.

Plus, I do not want to underestimate the red teams. Cincinnati still features future Hall of Famer Joey Votto and reigning NL ROY winner Jonathan India. India hit 15 of its 21 homers in 2021 after the All-Star break, so I’m excited to see him harness his raw power.

As a home underdog, I want to take a shot with Cinci in this place.


»Back to table of contents«


Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds

Pick
Guardians -110
Order
BetMGM
Kander
Shane Bieber Vs. Tyler Mahle
First pitch
16:10 ET

Jules Posner: There seemed to be great concern about the Cleveland Guardians’ ace Shane Bieber’s speed in his first start of the season.

Hopefully with more live reps and more confidence, Bieber can take another step forward against the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday.

Tyler Mahle was light-off in his 2022 debut when he threw five pointless innings against defending champion Atlanta Braves in Atlanta.

But given Mahle’s history at home, he may be in trouble.

Last season, Mahle posted a 5.63 ERA at home and a 5.16 FIP at home. This shows he has a full-fledged case on Willie’s at Great American Ballpark. It is true. Willies.

In addition, the Guardians’ attack looked potent in their last few games in Kansas City. They got 27 races in the other two matches after only posting one race in the first two matches.

It seems the Guardians are playing with some confidence, they have their aces going and the red aces have been diagnosed with a serious case of willies at home. The Guards ML looks like a good game here at -110. Would still be worth a spin up to the -150 threshold.


»Back to table of contents«


Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees

Pick
Yankees Team in total over 5
Order
PointBet
Kander
Yusei Kikuchi Vs. Nestor Cortes
First pitch
19:05 ET

DJ James: Yusei Kikuchi ranked in the first percentile last season with an average starting speed of 91.9 mph. This is cruel considering the power of powerhitters in the New York series.

Kikuchi relies heavily on a cutter / four-seamer mix, but most of the Yankees’ lineup in 2021 had a .330+ xwOBA against those pitches from the southpaws.

Last season, the Yankees also had a 110 wRC + against southpaws. In addition, only 15.9% of their hits were “soft”, so this could be a nightmare for Kikuchi. For a team that hits 72 bombs from the left wing, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they do not at least hit a couple in this match.

Based on that, the Toronto bullpen is not too strong behind Jordan Romano. Tim Mayza and Adam Cimber are decent, but depending on availability, the Blue Jays could be strapped to bullpen-innings after playing on Monday. If Kikuchi takes an early exit, they just need someone to take on the mop-up duty.

Taking a side here is hard with how strong the Blue Jays’ lineup is, but the Yankees will run up. Take this line to 5.5.


»Back to table of contents«


Los Angeles Dodgers Vs. Minnesota Twins

Pick
Over 9 (-112)
Order
FanDuel
Kander
Andrew Heaney vs. Chris Archer
First pitch
19:40 ET

Mike Ianniello: The powerful Dodgers lineup only managed to score 11 runs in three games in Denver. They beat only one home, and as everyone expected, it came from Austin Barnes. Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, Max Muncy and Mookie Betts are a combined 9-to-52 (.173) so far this season.

Do we really expect their fights to continue much longer? Especially against Chris Archer. After posting a 5.19 ERA in 2019, Archer missed the entire 2020 season and most of 2021. He returned at the end of the year, making five starts and finishing with a 4.66 ERA and 4.79 xFIP. His speed is far down and his HardHit% is much higher.

Pitching for the Dodgers will be Andrew Heaney, who was one of the worst pitchers in the league last season. His 5.83 ERA was the third worst in the entire league among pitchers with at least 120 innings. His 2.01 HR / 9 rate was the fifth highest.

To put it bluntly, both of these pitchers stink and these two offenses are capable of doing lots of damage to them. If the Dodgers finally wake up and get started, as everyone expects, this one can go over in a hurry. I played over 9 late Monday and wanted to play over 9.5 down to -110.


»Back to table of contents«


Los Angeles Dodgers Vs. Minnesota Twins

Pick
Over 9 (-112)
Order
FanDuel
Kander
Andrew Heaney vs. Chris Archer
First pitch
19:40 ET

Doug Ziefel: I do not think I am bringing any news here when I say that Chris Archer has reached the end of his rope. Archer missed most of 2021 with another injury. Although he was not great in his 19 innings of work, his fastball speed was down by almost 2 mph and it was often hit as he had an expected ERA of 5.96.

Last year was just the latest addition to Archer’s decline, as he has not had an ERA under four since 2015. Not to mention, this scary Dodgers lineup has touched him up in the past.

Over 84 record appearances, the big Dodgers bats hit a combined .338, go out .706 and have a .406 wOBA against Archer.

Andrew Heaney also does not instill a wealth of self-confidence. Heaney had a reputation with the Angels as an underrated pitcher when he had things to put guys away but just could not stay on the mound.

In 2021, we saw Heaney allow a ton of hard contact as he pitched to a 5.83 ERA and was in the bottom third of the league in hard hit percentage, barrel percentage and average exit speed.

Eventually, in addition to facing a series of solid right-handed bats, Heaney does not get off to a warm start. Historically, April is the worst month of Heaney’s career as he has an ERA of 5.89 a month.

So look for running trips that need to be set up early and often in Minnesota.


»Back to table of contents«


Colorado Rockies vs. Texas Rangers

Pick
Rockies first five innings +135
Order
DraftKings
Kander
Chad Kuhl vs. Martin Perez
First pitch
20:05 ET

Brad Cunningham: The Rockies were one of the best lineups against left-handed pitching last season, averaging .266 and .334 wOBA. They lost one of their best batsmen against leftists in Trevor Story, but the addition of Kris Bryant cancels that void as Bryant has a .406 wOBA against leftists in his career.

They face a pretty below average leftist in Martin Perez, so this is a good match for Colorado’s lineup. Perez posted the highest xERA (5.54) and Hard Hit% allowed (42.7%) of his career in Boston in 2021, according to FanGraphs. At the age of 31, imagine that he is on a downward trajectory in his career.

Chad Kuhl spent four seasons in Pittsburgh, but his 2021 was actually not that bad. His xERA was 4.82, which was his best grade since 2018. He mainly uses a slider, goes to it 46.1% of the time and had nice success in the last year, kept opponents to an xBA and produced a 33.4 % whiff rate, pr Baseball Savant. Texas was 19th with a run value of -24.2 against sliders last season.

I have Kuhl and the Rockies estimated at +117 for the first five innings, so I like the value of them at +135 and would play it down to +130.


»Back to table of contents«


Leave a Comment