The first Wednesday in the MLB board is filled with day games and there is plenty of value to pick up throughout.
We have two division matches in our binoculars this afternoon, and a match between American League challenger that rounds the board tonight.
Here are our top three games from Wednesday in Major League Baseball.
MLB Odds & Picks
New York Mets Vs. Philadelphia Phillies
DJ James: After the trade deadline last season, both of these teams hovered around the average towards the right wing (100 wRC +). Yes, both of these teams experienced significant guard turnover in the offseason.
The Mets added Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. Escobar hits the left wing far better in his career, but Marte and Canha have shockingly enough reverse splits as right-handed batsmen.
Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos joined Philadelphia in the offseason. Castellano’s mash leftists far better than rightists. The reverse is the case for Schwarber. Add to the mix that Bryce Harper is now potentially landing on the injury list with an elbow injury, and this results in a massive blow to the Phillies.
Although they struggled, both of these skilled veteran starters managed six innings in their first starter this season. They should be able to deliver it to the back end of each bullpen without allowing too many runs. Pitching should rule in this fight.
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Tanner McGrath: I will continue to support Logan Webb until I can no longer.
Following the Opening Day victory over Miami, the Giants have now won 23 of Webb’s last 27 starts. It’s amazing.
And that’s not luck. Logan Webb is very good. After posting a sub-2.70 FIP last season, projections will have him end the season with a sub-3.00 FIP again. His shooter is particularly deadly, holding opponents to a .191 wOBA with a 47.1% scent rate last season.
Padres dislike shooters, after sending a -16.1 wSL mark in 2021.
Also, I’m actually pretty low on Padres.
I think they are overrated after the 4-1 start. The Pads opened their season against the Diamondbacks. So the schedule just gets harder from here. San Diego still lacks Fernando Tatis Jr. and is a bit short in the rotation, as I expect Yu Darvish to fight his way forward.
Despite a dominant start to the opening day, I am not sold on Sean Manaea. Even after posting a 3.62 xFIP in 2021, he ranked only in the 18th percentile at the average allowable exit speed (90.2 mph). If there is time to sell high on him, it could be this start.
Plus, the Giants like leftists. They finished in ninth place in MLB last season in wRC + against southpaws (103), leading the league in gang rate against that side (10.3%).
You can still grab the Giants ML for -130 at DraftKings. The F5 might also be worth half a unit.
Seattle Mariners Vs. Chicago White Sox
Collin Whitchurch: It’s the reigning AL Cy Young winner against Dallas Keuchel… and the reigning AL Cy Young winner is an underdog.
I know the White Sox will be favored more often than not this year. I also understand that Robbie Ray is a leftist and the White Sox are generally quite successful against leftists.
I ALSO understand that it is unlikely that Ray will repeat his amazing 2021 campaign.
But come on.
Keuchel finished last season with a 5.28 ERA. xFIP says he was a little unlucky, but his xERA was still a terrible 6.15.
Ray met these White Sox twice last season and combined in 13 1/3 innings with 27 strikeouts, a walk and an earned run. The White Sox handled many injuries last year, but the second of those games had Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert in the lineup and they will still be without Yoan Moncada today.
The White Sox certainly have a chance to get to Ray given their overall success against the southpaws, and if you’re willing to take risks, you can instead aim for the Mariners’ team overall (over 4 at -120), but get the better end of this pitching matchup on plus money is too good to pass up.
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