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Jump forward: The game of the night | Analytics edge
What you need to know for Wednesday’s play-in matches
Bench Mob: Charlotte and Atlanta meet in a game that claims a healthy total of about 236 points. Such a count suggests that stacking from these lists may prove to be rewarding. On a night with only two games, it is important to find contributors to fringe rotation with high ceilings. Atlantas Bogdan Bogdanovic has achieved an average of 9.7 3-point attempts per. 36 minutes this season – almost one more than Trae Young per. match. Bogdanovic claims a PRA (point + assists + rebounds) prop of 24.5 on DraftKings, a clip he has surpassed in eight of his last 12 appearances for Atlanta. Hornets’ Kelly Oubre Jr. lifted 28 3-pointers against the Hawks in four meetings this season, and like Bogdanovic, he is accelerating his team by 10 3-pointers per game. 36 minutes. Although the floors are somewhat low – especially with Oubre – these bench-microwaves claim ceilings that change slate.
Point out: Something lost in the shuffle in New Orleans this season is the fact that Brandon Ingram averaged career-high 5.6 assists. The betting markets are a bit more hip compared to Ingram’s passing ability, as his assist prop for tonight’s matchup with Spurs stands at 5.5, and yet there is still value in that number, as he has produced at least six shillings in 11 of his last 13 battles for the pelicans. As a DFS building block for tonight’s two games, it’s helpful to note that Ingram averaged 24.5 points and nine combined assists and rebounds against Spurs in two meetings this season. Such rates should be considered closer to his production floor in a game that will require about 40 minutes of exposure from this new playmaker.
Wild Card: Volatility is simply part of Danilo Gallinari’s game; in his last six appearances for Atlanta this season, his scores were 25, 4, 15, 26, 7 and 26 points. With John Collins ruled out for tonight’s tilt with rival Hornets, it’s remarkable that Gallinari sees his usage and rebound rates swell when Collins is off the floor. If you can embrace the inherent variance of his game in daily fantasy lineups, there is payoff potential in this play-in matchup with a Charlotte team that has given 47.7 fantasy DraftKings points per game. match for power forwards – the seventh-highest rate in the league.
Block party: You may know San Antonio’s Jakob Poeltl based on the fun daily NBA quiz game that refers to his last name, but for this evening against the Pelicans, it’s best to consider him a knowledgeable target for DFS value and defensive props. As with Cleveland’s Evan Mobley on Tuesday, we find in Poeltl an elite rim protector ready to play heavy minutes in a crucial game. Poeltl led the NBA this season in defensive shots per. match within six feet of the basket and finished in fifth place in blocks per. match and in sixth place in blocking percentage. It might make sense to target achievable blocks (1.5) and rebounding props (8.5) for Poeltl in a matchup with a big New Orleans forehand that he averaged 30 minutes, 10.5 rebounds and 2, 25 blocks against in four meetings this season.
– Jim McCormick
The game of the night
No. 10 Charlotte Hornets at No. 9 in the Atlanta Hawks
19:00 ET, State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
Line: Hawks (-4.5)
Moneyline: Hawks (-190), Hornets (+160)
Total: 260 points
BPI expected total: 224.2 points
BPI Win%: Hawks (68.9%)
Key players excluded: John Collins
Remarkable: The Hawks have covered the spread in each of their last six games as favorites.
Best bid: Trae Young over 46.5 points + assists + rebounds. Young gets hot at the right time against a replaceable Hornets team. He has averaged 32.3 PPG, 10.3 APG and 3.3 RPG over his last seven games. The Hornets rank 20th in allowed points per. 100 possessions and allows opponents to shoot a high effective field goal percentage and amass a wealth of offensive rebounds. – Eric Moody
Best bid: Clint Capela over 25.5 points + rebounds. Capela is another Hawks player on the rise. He has averaged 16 PPGs and 12 RPGs in the last four games. Capela has an advantageous match against the Hornets, who have struggled to defend the inner all season. Centers averaged 25.3 PPG and 17 RPGs against Charlotte in the regular season. – Moody
Best bid: Under 236 points. The Hornets and Hawks together had just 226 PPG on average over their four meetings this season, and the number drops to 215 if their game on Dec. 5 is ruled out. Several offensive key players are also expected to be absent from both teams. – Moody
I agree with Moody for many of the same reasons. In addition, each of the main guards in this series, Young, LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier, all fought offensively in their matchups this season. Young and Ball have been playing better lately, but these teams played just a few weeks ago and the story was the same. This is playoff basketball, which typically means a more physical and potentially less scoring match. – André Snellings
No. 10 San Antonio Spurs No. 9 in the New Orleans Pelicans
21:30 ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
Line: Pelicans (-5.5)
Moneyline: Pelicans (-220), Spurs (+180)
Total: 227.5 points
BPI expected total: 217.3 points
BPI Win%: Pelicans (69.6%)
Key players excluded: none
Remarkable: The Spurs have won each of their last four games as underdogs against the Pelicans.
Erin Dolan explains why she expects Dejounte Murray to get a big fight from the deep against the Pelicans.
Best bid: Dejounte Murray over 40.5 points + assists + rebounds. Murray’s presence on the field against the Mavericks on Sunday was encouraging. He should have a great match against a Pelicans team that is number 18 in allowed points per game. 100 possessions. Murray averaged 18.3 PPG, 10.0 APG and 10 RPG in four games against the Pelicans in the regular season. – Moody
Best bid: Dejounte Murray over 7.5 rebounds. Murray is one of the best rebound guards in the league and has averaged 9.8 RPGs against the Pelicans this season. Murray had double-digit rebounds in two of their four games and has gone over 7.5 rebounds in three of those games. – Accelerations
Best offer: Jonas Valanciunas over 30.5 points + rebounds. Valanciunas has had an excellent season and averaged 18 PPG and 11.4 RPG for the Pelicans. The Centers have excelled against the Spurs all season, giving up many offensive rebounds to the opponents. – Moody
Best offer: Under 227.5. The Spurs and Pelicans have averaged 220.5 PPGs in four games this season. Only one of those games went over 227.5 points. – Moody
BPI highest expected totals
1. Atlanta Hawks (114.8 points)
2. New Orleans Pelicans (111.5 points)
3. Charlotte Hornets (109.4 points)
BPI lowest expected totals
1. San Antonio Spurs (105.8 points)
2. Charlotte Hornets (109.4 points)
3. New Orleans Pelicans (111.5 points)
BPI highest probability of winning (straight up)
1. Atlanta Hawks (69%)
2. New Orleans Pelicans (69.8)
3. San Antonio Spurs (30.2%)