As the NFL offseason continues, the passivity of the San Francisco 49ers trade continues to stir the rumor mill. Although Jimmy Garoppolo’s rumors have fallen, the future of All-Pro wide receiver Deebo Samuel is now at the center of much speculation.
Samuel was incredible last season for the 49ers and led the league with 18.2 yards per carry. reception while totaling 77 receptions, 1,405 receiving yards, 1,770 yards from scrimmage and 14 total touchdowns. Now heading into the final year of his rookie contract, Samuel is in a position to get a well-deserved contract extension from the 49ers. But at least for now, the Niners have been reluctant to reach its asking price.
Samuel reportedly sees a deal that pays him $ 25 million a year and potentially makes him the highest paid non-QB in the NFL (though the material significance of that may be less than you think). The 49ers should have the flexibility of the salary cap to give him a contract he deserves. Still, due to their limited space, rumors have begun to swirl that they could soon follow several other competitors who have swapped top-wide receivers.
Get into the New York Jets. With former 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh working as a Jets head coach alongside a number of former Niners assistants, the Jets’ ties to Samuel are obvious. While New York is trying to build an offensive around young quarterback Zach Wilson, the addition of a talent like Samuel would be an obvious blessing to the organization. More importantly, for the 49s, they have a wealth of working capital.
The Jets have two top-ten picks in the first and second rounds along with seven picks in the first four rounds of this year’s draft. For that reason, they have many avenues to provide an aggressive exchange offer for the 49ers for Deebo Samuel.
There is a chasm of possibilities should a Samuel trade happen. Jets reportedly Kansas City offered the 35th, 38th and 69th picks to Tyreek Hill, who has been an elite NFL receiver for longer than Samuel, also coming up with significantly more red flags off the field.
While the Seahawks wideout DK Metcalf may also be on the move soon. Seattle may not want to swap their only remaining star this offseason. That could leave Samuel as the only premium receiver left for teams like the Jets, which could place the 49ers to get an even bigger return than Kansas City.
Here are a few repetitions of what a trade can cost the Jets. These packages are not intended to represent equivalent values, but rather to cover the range of possibilities. The 49ers’ front office may well ask itself, “How much would it take us to swap our franchise’s best wide receiver since Terrell Owens?” Take a look at these possible deals yourself. Would any of them be enough to make you feel good about the trade?
Jets-49ers Deebo Samuel Trading Pack # 1:
4th overall choice
It would be a massive upheaval of the draft, and for the third year in a row, the 49ers traded for another team’s best first-round pick. The Niners could tell the Jets that all they need is the fourth overall pick, it would be a hard pill to swallow, but given New York’s total draft capital, they are perhaps more willing to do so than the average team.
The 49ers would immediately know that they will have the opportunity to draft at least one of Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeau, Trayvon Walker or Kyle Hamilton, the four defensive elite prospects in this class. Thibodeau, Walker and Hutchinson are each exciting edge prospects who could immediately form an incredible duo against Nick Bosa. Hamilton is without a doubt the best safety prospect of the decade, which could add another dynamic piece to their secondary. Of course, they could also explore trading back to add more choices.
The Jets would give up the top offensive and defensive talent at the top of the draft, but with the Seahawks’ first-round pick (10th overall) and several other top-40 picks, they would still have some flexibility to advance again. in the top-10 to pull any of the kantrusher that fall.
Since this agreement is only one choice, different draft value charts will not have different opinions. But for the context, the Fitzgerald-Spielberger map is the most modern chart built from an analytical model built by Jason Fitzgerald and Brad Spielberger. Jimmy Johnson’s classic draft chart from his days as head coach was the primary tool used in the NFL for many years, but the Rich Hills model tried to adapt it to the latest trends in draft trading.
Draft value diagram: Single selection corresponding most to the total value (where it ranks among the five packages)
Fitzgerald-Spielberger: 4th overall choice (4)
Jimmy Johnson: 4th overall election (1)
Rich Hill: 4th overall choice (1)
Jets-49ers Deebo Samuel Trading Pack # 2:
If the Jets are eager to stick with their top-five selection, a top-ten pick in the first and third rounds would be more than the 49ers needed to trade DeForest Buckner by 2020.
The best wide receiver prospects, like Drake London and Garrett Wilson, tend to go off the board around the 10th pick in most mock drafts, suggesting the Niners could consider trade-down scenarios or pick the class recipients that they seemed to be helping to replace Samuel’s production. Plus, the 49ers are currently only scheduled to pick once in the first 90 draft picks. So the addition of the Jets’ third rounds would also be a remarkable addition.
For the Jets, they are probably planning to take a receiver with the 10th overall pick in the draft. While it will require more cap space, it would seem reasonable for them to be happy to turn it around and a third round for Samuel.
Fitzgerald-Spielberger: 2nd overall election (2)
Jimmy Johnson: 6th overall election (2)
Rich Hill: 6th overall choice (2)
Jets-49ers Deebo Samuel Trading Pack # 3:
35, 38, 117
This deal is close to what the Jets offered for Hill. While offering the 69th choice, they got a booty from Kansas City back in the proposed deal. This will basically force the 49ers to ask themselves if they value Samuel more than Kansas City valued Hill. If they do, it would not be good enough. If they do not, it may be the agreement that is being made.
There is no scenario in NFL history where any team would swap the first overall pick for 35, 38 and 117, but the Fitzgerald-Spielberger model believes the trio of picks have actually been more valuable than the top pick in the draft. Not surprisingly, the more traditional models see this package as far less valuable and one that would probably make most fans furious.
The 49s have tended to have more traditional draft value charts in their trades. For that reason, I would expect them to prefer to have only the 10th overall choice for this package. I suppose any of them would be something the Jets would happily be willing to do.
Fitzgerald-Spielberger: 1st overall choice (1)
Jimmy Johnson: Overall 13th choice (4)
Rich Hill: 11th overall (4)
Jets-49ers Deebo Samuel Trading Pack # 4:
38, NYJ 2023 1. *
This frame seems like the least enticing for both teams, as the 49ers are likely to worry about fighting in 2023 much more than the Jets. But according to the three trade value charts, it represents a roughly similar value. Also, betting on the Jets might not be such a bad idea.
Fitzgerald-Spielberger: 4th overall choice (3)
Jimmy Johnson: 9th overall election (3)
Rich Hill: Overall 8th Choice (3)
* future election value was calculated with a discount rate of 35% and assumed the 10th overall committee
Jets 49ers Deebo Samuel Trading Pack # 5:
Alijah Vera-Tucker, 35, 111
There is no doubt how outraged 49ers fans would be if this was the trade that was made. Without a first-round pick or a major player in return, this package would understandably be an overwhelming return. However, it also depends to a large extent on the evaluation of Vera-Tucker and the respective draft diagram.
Vera-Tucker was the 14th overall pick in last year’s draft and had a solid rookie season, starting all 17 games for the Jets on the left guard. Since the Jets have signed 49ers left-back Laken Tomlinson as a free agent, Vera-Tucker will have to move to the other side of the line if he stays in New York. He only started on the left side of the line in college or the professionals.
Niners still have questions about how they will replace Tomlinson. Vera-Tucker would be a clear upgrade over the 49ers’ current options. While inconsistent in passing protection as a rookie, he was already an impressive running block.
His PFF grades were far better than 49ers right guard Dan Brunskill across the board, and there is reason to believe he has room for greater development going forward. Add to that the 49ers and Jets running very similar offensive schemes and the potential fit is obvious. But how much would Vera-Tucker be worth to San Francisco?
The Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart argues that this trade would be the flock’s best bet if Vera-Tucker was worth the 40th overall pick, a case that is pretty easy to make. However, the more traditional charts are more difficult.
Johnson’s chart would require Vera-Tucker to be worth the 12th overall pick, and Hill’s the 18th to make this deal more valuable than just earning 4 left. Of course, if the fourth overall choice is off the table, it’s a very different conversation.
Fitzgerald-Spielberger: Vera-Tucker + 10th overall pick (5)
Jimmy Johnson: Vera-Tucker + 30th overall pick (5)
Rich Hill: Vera-Tucker + 29th overall pick (5)
Jets-49ers Breakeven Deebo Samuel Trade:
Alijah Vera-Tucker, 10
The 10th overall pick and Alijah Vera-Tucker may seem like significantly more than what the Jets offered for Tyreek Hill, but would the Jets really turn down the chance to get Deebo for just an inside lineman and a pick? Especially when they still wanted a top-five selection in the draft.
Almost every mock draft expects the Jets to add a wide receiver with the 10th overall pick, why not turn it into Deebo? While trading with Vera-Tucker would create some issues along their offensive line, there is no guarantee that it will be a hassle-free adjustment for him to move to the right side. Plus, the Jets have retained both of their right-backs from last season (Dan Feeney and Greg Van Roten) and would still have plenty of draft capital to add yet another inside offensive lineman.
If the 49ers make the dubious decision to swap Samuel, this deal could let them go and say they’ve received the equivalent of two first-round picks, one of which has already proven they’re a solid NFL starter on a clear hole in the list. .
While most of the salary cap savings would come from not giving Samuel an extension, Vera-Tucker’s 2022 salary is about $ 2.6 million less than Samuel’s, giving the 49ers a little more ceiling space on their way into the draft. To further measure, Vera-Tucker is under contract for the next three years for just over $ 2.1 million per year. seasonal expense for the Niners, a great value for a starting guard. Plus, the 49ers would have another season of potential team control over Vera-Tucker if they would use his fifth-year option for the 2025 season.
For me, it would probably take the Jets offering both the 4th overall pick and the Vera-Tucker to feel comfortable by pressing the trigger. Even then, I would have some hesitation. And that’s why, if that was my decision, I would probably not trade Samuel. As my colleague Jordan Elliott explained last month, stars-trading teams rarely get in a better position than they started.
Incidentally, I doubt the Jets are willing to part with a top-five pick and one of the better young players on their already talent-poor list, even for Samuel. It’s hard to imagine the Niners being able to win more than Vera-Tucker and the 10th overall pick, and that would still be more than the Jets offered for Tyreek Hill.
So how do you feel about the opportunity to trade Deebo Samuel? What do you think a team like the Jets would be willing to offer? How many of these offers do you want the 49ers to accept? Tell us in the comments.