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What you need to know for Saturday’s playoff games
To lose Luke: The Mavericks will be without Luka Doncic for Saturday’s matinee matchup with the Jazz. Jalen Brunson sees his usage and assist frequencies rise to star levels when Doncic is off the floor. The Villanova product has averaged 22.1 points and 7.5 assists per game. 36 minutes with Doncic off the field this season, compared to 18.4 and 5.4 with him on. In addition to Brunson, the scoring microwave Spencer Dinwiddie has shone in such scenarios; his usage rate increases by 9.1% in the team with an increase of 13 DraftKings points per. 36 minutes with Doncic off the floor. Center Dwight Powell, on the other hand, sees his scoring clips drop markedly when Doncic is not on the field.
Steph effect: Steve Kerr joked that Stephen Curry would not play 38 minutes in Saturday’s return after a foot injury, but he would not go into specific restrictions for his superstar guard. A notable result of Curry’s likely return is how extreme Jordan Poole’s splits show up with his teammate this season. The most improved player candidate has averaged 25.1 points, 5.8 dimes and 10.3 3-point attempts per game. 36 minutes with Curry off the field, but his rates drop to 18.2, 3.5 and 7.6 when they split the floor. If Curry can return to form, it is pertinent that Denver has delivered 50.2 DraftKings points per game. match for point guards this season, fourth most in the league.
Point out: Without a true traditional point guard, the Toronto Raptors often distribute distribution tasks between a few key players. Striker Pascal Siakam has been particularly dominant against the 76ers this season, posting the triple-double of his third career in a win a few weeks ago. Serving as the creator of Toronto against a Sixers team, which he has averaged 8.3 dimes against this season, makes Siakam’s 4.5-assist delivery support stand out, as does his potential for flirting. tournament-tilting DFS production.
Swat Watch: Grizzlies’ Years Jackson Jr. ran the entire league with 40 blocks this season. This elite defender put up a dozen battles against the Timberwolves in four games this season, his most against any single opponent. With a block stopper of 1.5 with heavy juice and plus money for 2.5 blocks on most books, “JJJ” enters Saturday’s opening game against Minnesota with value for defensive props as the league’s top rim protector.
– Jim McCormick
The game of the night
Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers
18:00 ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Line: 76ers (-4.5)
Money line: 76ers (-190), Raptors (+160)
Total: 216 points
BPI expected total: 212.8
BPI Win%: 76ers (66.2)
Key players excluded: none
Remarkable: The Raptors have won four of their last five games as underdogs.
Erin Dolan shares her favorite bet in the series in the first round between the Raptors and 76ers.
Best bid: Tobias Harris under 1.5 made 3s. Harris shot 18.8% from 3-point range in four matchups against the Raptors in the regular season. Toronto’s defense continues to improve down the stretch and is likely to limit Harris. – Erin Dolan
Best bid: Pascal Siakam over 23.5 points. Siakam was big down the stretch, averaging 27.0 PPG in his last 20 games and going over 23.5 points in 14 of the 20 games. He has been even better against the 76ers in particular, averaging 30.3 PPG at 50.7 FG% with at least 26 points in all three of his matchups with them this season. – André Snellings
Best bid: Scottie Barnes over 0.5 made 3s. Barnes is not known for his ability to shoot 3s, but he has averaged 2.6 per. match. He has made a triple in five of his last six games and two of his three games against the 76ers in the regular season. – Eric Moody
Degradation of the rest of the board
Utah Jazz at the Dallas Mavericks
13.00 ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas
Line: Jazz (-5.0)
Money line: Jazz (-210), Mavericks (+175)
Total: 209.5 points
BPI expected total: 216.8 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (50.7%)
Key players excluded: Luka Doncic
Remarkable: The home team has won each of the last seven matches between the Jazz and the Mavericks.
Best bid: Rudy Gobert over 14.5 rebounds. Gobert’s rebound prop seems high, but he should dominate on the glass, and I do not see the Mavericks having an answer after they traded Kristaps Porzingis to Washington. Gobert has hit this over in five of his last eight games. Although he has not hit it in three games in a row, the first two against elite competition, he went away with 21 rebounds against Memphis and 20 rebounds against Golden State. You can count on Gobert going up in big games. – Dolan
Best bid: Jazz -5. With Doncic ruled out, the Mavericks will be without the player responsible for the vast majority of their success this season. Jazz come in with a clear advantage, and if they get a hint of the kind of “Playoffs Donovan Mitchell” explosion that they typically get from him in the off-season, they should still be in better shape. – Accelerations
Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies
15:30 ET, FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tenn.
Line: Grizzlies (-7.0)
Money line: Grizzlies (-300), Timberwolves (+240)
Total: 235 points
BPI expected total: 227.8 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (72.5%)
Key players excluded: none
Remarkable: Each of the Grizzlies’ last nine playoff games has gone over the total.
Best offer: Over 235 points. The Timberwolves are in seventh place in points scored per 100 possessions, and the Grizzlies are in fourth place. In addition, both teams score many points on transition play. There will be plenty of possessions in this game, which bodes well for the overflow. Thirty-six of the Timberwolves’ last 52 road games have gone over the total – Moody.
Best bid: Memphis 1H (-4,5). The Grizzlies were the best team in the league in the first half of the regular season with 54-27-1. Memphis is also 8-2 ATS in 1H overall and at home in the last 10 games. Both of these teams play at some of the fastest pace in the league. I think the Grizzlies jump out quickly and collect a ton of points. – Dolan
Best offer: Anthony Edwards over 22.5 points. Edwards averaged 24.4 PPG over an 11-game stretch to end the regular season. The Grizzlies’ defense will be hard to beat, but Edwards scored 23, 27 and 30 points in his three previous games against them this season. This could be his moment to shine. – Moody
Best bid: Desmond Bane over 27.5 points + assists + rebounds. Bane enjoyed a breakout second season in the league. While Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. gets a lot of attention and rightly so, Bane has been an integral part of the Grizzlies’ success. He averaged 18.2 PPG in the regular season, and the Timberwolves have allowed 23 PPG, 5.1 APG and 7.0 RPG. Lane is likely to meet or exceed these averages per. match Saturday afternoon. – Moody
Best bet: Patrick Beverley under 9.5 points. Beverley had seven points against the Clippers, but the boy he was fired up after the Timberwolves’ victory over the Clippers. It’s only right to fade him in this matchup. He has averaged nine points in his last four games against the Grizzlies and has only hit above his stopper in two of the last 10 games. – Dolan
Best bet: Karl-Anthony Towns under 24.5 points. Towns have gone offensively back down the stretch, in part to allow Anthony Edwards to shine. The Towns averaged 22.4 PPG in their last 10 games of the regular season, going below 24.5 points in six of those outings, and then reaching just 11 points before knocking out Wolves’ play-offs. victory over the Clippers. The Towns have met the Grizzlies four times this season with an average of 23.3 PPG and scored 22 points against them in their final outing. – Accelerations
Denver Nuggets at the Golden State Warriors
20:30 ET, Chase Center, San Francisco
Line: Warriors (-6.5)
Money line: Warriors (-260), Nuggets (+210)
Total: 223 points
BPI expected total: 224.4 points
BPI Win%: Warriors (68.4%)
Key players excluded: none
Remarkable: The Warriors have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight playoff games as favorites.
Best bid: Nuggets +6.5 points. There’s a good chance the Warriors will get Stephen Curry back for Game 1, marking one of the only times this season where their team would have its top five players play together. They have a huge upside, but may have some growing pains as Curry strikes the rust off and everyone gets used to playing together again. The Nuggets finished the season well with 25-10 in the last 35 games that Nikola Jokic played in, going straight to 3-1 in their four matchups with the Warriors this season. – Accelerations
Best bid: Draymond Green over 23.5 points + assists + rebounds. Green will be the Warriors’ most important player in this series. He has averaged 7.0 PPG, 10.3 APG and 8.0 RPG in his last four games against the Nuggets. Power forwards thrived against the Nuggets in the regular season and averaged 22 PPG, 3.5 APG and 10.5 RPG – Moody
BPI highest expected totals
1. Memphis Grizzlies (117.4 points)
2. Golden State Warriors (114.9 points)
Minnesota Timberwolves (110.4 points)
BPI lowest expected totals
1. Toronto Raptors (104.1 points)
2. Utah Jazz (108.3 points)
3. Philadelphia 76ers (108.7 points)
BPI highest probability of winning (straight up)
1. Memphis Grizzlies (72.5%)
2. Golden State Warriors (68.4%)
3. Philadelphia 76ers (66.2%)